THE DAILY YIELD

🌟 Editor’s Note:

🐺 Good morning and happy Friday. If you’ve also been thinking, “Wasn’t the dire wolf extinct?” — you’re not alone. Apparently, science (and the internet) said “hold my beer.” of 10,000 years of extinction, they’re back. Time mag.

And, if you’re the golfing type, Justin Rose did more than just match his best score at the Masters. Video, tsn.

MARKET PULSE

1. Loonie climbs, stocks slide, and canola holds the line

Market Pulse Update: April 10, 2025

🌐 Canadian markets grappled with a volatile session on April 10 as global trade anxieties and shifting macro conditions kept investors on their toes. After a strong showing the day prior, major U.S. indices reversed course, dragging sentiment across North American equities.

• The S&P 500 closed down 3.5% at 5,268.05.

• While the Dow Jones shed 2.5% to settle at 39,593.66.

• The Nasdaq fared worst, sliding 4.3% to 16,387.31 amid renewed tech sector weakness. The sharp moves reflect a market wrestling with conflicting signals — cooling inflation, but intensifying geopolitical risks.

From a Canadian lens, the CAD strengthened notably, closing at 1.3969 per USD — up 1.13% on the day — as capital flowed out of U.S. assets and into perceived safe havens.

• U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield fluctuating as traders repriced risk in real time.

🌾 The ag markets offered a bright spot. Canola futures rose $2.60 to $654.00/tonne, supported by firm export demand and prairie weather uncertainties. Corn and wheat also posted gains — up 3.5 and 3.25 cents respectively — buoyed by positioning ahead of upcoming USDA supply updates and lingering global logistics bottlenecks.

Broader commodity sentiment, however, took a hit.

• The S&P GSCI commodity index slumped 4.94% to 522.70, dragged down by energy and metals amid global demand concerns.

• The divergence between softs and hard commodities reflects the uneven nature of today's macro crosscurrents.

Bottom line: Markets are re-calibrating quickly. With tariffs, inflation, and currency shifts all in play, Canadian investors would be wise to stay nimble. Ag is holding its ground for now, but all eyes remain on trade desks and weather maps as the next catalysts take shape.

Not financial advice. Data sources:
APnews.com, Morningstar.com, MarketWatch.com, Exchange-rates.org, Agriculture.com, YahooFinance.com, Barchart.com 

TRENDING

2. Fresh off the press, here’s the latest scuttlebutt

Bullish trends:

🌽 Corn is climbing on supply squeeze. Corn futures are on a tear, up nearly 5% this week. The USDA slashed ending stock estimates to 1.465 billion bushels, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to a tight 9.6%. Historically, such levels have corn flirting with prices north of $6.90 per bushel, well above the current $4.66.

🛸 IPO in turbulence? AIRO Says "Drone On!" Airo Group, a U.S. drone-maker, is braving stormy markets with a $75M IPO, aiming for a $410M valuation. While Klarna and StubHub grounded their listings, Airo’s betting on booming military drone demand to lift off — despite a $38.7M loss last year.

Bearish trends:

🥱 Yawn-worthy for most, but corn. The USDA's April WASDE dropped with all the excitement of a Monday morning meeting—no fireworks, no drama, just a slow shuffle of numbers. While corn got a modest pat on the back (exports up, stocks down), soybeans, wheat, and the rest of the gang were left loitering in the neutral zone. No major changes, no revised surprises, just a report that quietly tiptoed through the data.

⛽️ Ethanol output just dipped to a two-month low — down to 1.021M barrels/day — while Midwest plants hit the brakes. Inventories are piling up, demand’s slipping, and corn farmers supplying biofuel feedstock are bracing for price pressure.

TECH SPOTLIGHT

3. Fairmat raises €51.5M to reinvent carbon biber recycling

Fairmat operates production plants in France and the U.S., with a goal of producing 500 tonnes of new material annually by 2025. The company has secured €50 million in contracted revenue from clients like Hexcel, DPS Skis, and Decathlon. Future plans include expanding into the mobility, electronics, and energy sectors, with expectations that the U.S. will account for 50% of their order book by year's end.

Backstory: Founder, CEO and executive chairman is Benjamin Saada. A materials recycling company focused on developing innovative technologies and addressing the end-of-life, of materials like carbon fiber.

Key innovation: Cutting waste into small chips and reassembling them into sheets, recovering up to 90% of the material with significantly lower CO2 emissions.

Funding: $57 million B round to recycle carbon composites. Includes €26.5 million in equity from investors such as Slate, Bpifrance, Cape Capital, Pictet Group, Temasek, Singular, and CNP, and €25 million in debt from the European Investment Bank.

Read more

INCASE YOU MISSED IT

4. 🥊 104% Drama, 0% Chill

🇨🇳🇺🇸 On the next episode of “Tariff Wars”. The U.S. slapped a 104% tariff on Chinese goods — and China’s not blinking. They’ve vowed to “fight to the end,” setting the stage for another trade slugfest. How are the markets? Volatile. The traders? Frazzled. Elon Musk? Raging on X, after a White House adviser botched the math (yep—used the wrong numbers to justify the tariff hike). Trump claims it’s bringing in $2B/day and bending foreign leaders to the table. Our take? When the U.S. and China brawl, your grain, inputs, and exports feel it. Keep your boots on and your hedges tight. However, Trump has put a 90-day PAUSE on most countries tariffs.

💸 Recent USDA budget cuts slash programs aiding small farms, while larger operations reap billions in federal support. Critics argue this shift undermines local food systems.

🚜 Texas Ag faces labor crunch. New immigration policies threaten Texas agriculture, where nearly 28% of the workforce is immigrant labor. Farmers warn that without these essential workers, crop production could suffer.

🦘 My Co rescues Australian plant proteins from liquidation to revive local plant-based industry. A Melbourne-based maker of plant protein isolates, has been acquired by My Co, the Paule Family Office investment arm, after entering voluntary administration in mid-2024 due to financial pressures.

THE BIG PICTURE

5. 🇨🇦 Canada’s Federal Election and the Farm Vote

Welcome to Election Season 2025, where political platforms are polished shinier than a tractor at a rural fair, and promises fly thicker than prairie mosquitoes in July.

This time around, the Liberals and Conservatives have drawn their lines in the proverbial sand, and it looks like a full-on duel between tax cuts, housing dreams, and who gets to boss around the CBC. Let’s break down what each party is pitching (and what they’re REALLY trying to sell you).

🔴 Liberals – Now with Mark Carney at the helm

The pitch: Keep things steady, fix housing, make green choices easier, and toss a bone to the CBC.

• Taxes: They’re trimming the lowest income bracket from 15% to 14%. Not enough to buy a house in Toronto, but hey, maybe a few more maple-dip donuts a year.

• Housing: The Liberals want to double the number of new homes built each year, aiming for nearly 500,000, and they’ll scrap GST on homes under $1 million (but only for first-time buyers).

• Climate & economy: No more carbon tax at the pump, but they’re keeping it for big industry, just repackaging the whole thing into a friendlier, incentive-based climate plan. They’re also pledging to hit that sacred NATO spending goal of 2% GDP by 2030, with a made-in-Canada shopping list for military gear.

• Media: CBC? Pour another cup of funding. Not only will they boost the budget, they want to legally protect it, too. Trudeau might be gone, but the cultural cushion lives on.

🔵 Conservatives – Poilievre’s productivity Push

The pitch: Axe the tax, build the homes, and fire up the bulldozers on red tape.

• Taxes: The Tories are slashing the same income tax bracket deeper — from 15% to 12.75%. That’s more noticeable at the gas station, especially when combined with their plan to torch the carbon tax entirely (yup, even for industry).

• Housing: All buyers (not just rookies) get a GST break on homes under $1.3 million. Poilievre’s also wagging a finger at city hall bureaucrats, telling them to cut development fees — and if they do, Ottawa will cover up to half the lost revenue.

• Energy & red tape: Out with environmental assessments, in with oil rigs, pipelines, and mining projects. Basically, if it drills, digs, or delivers cash, it’s green-lit.

• Media: The CBC’s English side? Gone. French-language Radio-Canada survives. The message is clear: Poilievre’s got no love for Peter Mansbridge’s ghost.

• Immigration (Quebec edition): They’re also tossing Quebec a juicy bone — giving the province the keys to pick its own temporary immigrants. Bonjour, autonomy.

☕️ Bottom line: The Liberals are betting Canadians want moderation, climate-friendliness, and public institutions that still have a role to play. The Conservatives? They’re pitching growth through gutting bureaucracy, cutting taxes, and putting more cash in your jeans (or Carhartts).

Whatever your flavor — less CBC, more houses, fewer taxes, or a sturdier climate stance — 2025’s shaping up to be a platform showdown for the ages.

And remember: promises are free. Delivery? That’s a post-election problem.