THE DAILY YIELD

🌟 Editors Note:

Hello, Wednesday! ✈️ The Winnipeg Jets achieved their 53rd win of the season, defeating the St. Louis Blues 3-1 and securing the top spot in the Central Division and Western Conference. Recap.

And the Florida Gators bring home their third Men's March Madness title with a 65-63 comeback victory over Houston last night in San Antonio. 🐊 Pics, vidoe.

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MARKET PULSE

1. Grains Rally as Macro Pressures Mount

📉 North American equity markets took a sharp step back to kick off the week, as investors adjusted their risk appetite amid rising bond yields and ongoing macro uncertainties.

• The S&P 500 slid 1.6% to close at 4,982.77, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 320 points, ending the session at 37,645.59.

• The Nasdaq led losses, dropping 2.1% to 15,267.91, weighed down by renewed selling pressure in high-growth names as rate expectations shifted.

⬇️ South of the border, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield spiked to 4.26%, its highest level in weeks. This surge in yields was a clear pressure point for equities, reflecting sticky inflation concerns and the market recalibrating toward a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment.

• For Canadian investors, this move added further divergence pressure on the CAD, which edged lower, sitting at 0.7013 USD, a level that tightens import margins but offers a bit of a boost to commodity exports.

🌾 In the Ag markets, strength was the name of the game for grains, with global weather risks and short-covering driving modest rallies.

• Canola futures in Winnipeg led the charge, climbing C$9.60 to close at C$646.20 per tonne, continuing a strong recovery stretch.

• In the U.S. markets, Corn gained 4½ cents to $4.69, while Wheat firmed 3½ cents to $5.40, both supported by global demand signals and positioning ahead of USDA updates.

• Soybeans saw a stronger lift, up nearly 10 cents to $9.92¾, riding on optimism around export activity and lower-than-expected South American output.

• On the livestock side, Live Cattle futures slipped modestly, with June contracts closing at $193.62, down 55 cents, as traders reassessed near-term demand outlooks and carcass weight trends.

🗣️ For Canadian producers and investors alike, the message is clear… Macro pressures are back in focus, and volatility is tightening its grip on risk assets. Strong commodity fundamentals are a saving grace, for now, but navigating the weeks ahead will require a steady hand, a sharp eye on bond markets, and close attention to FX moves that shape both pricing power and global competitiveness.

Not financial advice.
Data sources: APnews.com, Morningstar.com, MarketWatch.com, Exchange-rates.org, Agriculture.com, YahooFinance.com, Barchart.com 

TRENDING

2. Commodities at a Crossroads. Grains Up and Energy Down

Bullish Trends:

🇨🇳 Chinese agricultural stocks rally amid trade tensions. Investors are anticipating reduced reliance on U.S. imports due to escalating trade disputes. Notable increases include Dabeinong Tech, Wens Foodstuff, Wellhope Foods, and New Hope Liuhe, with stock rises between 2.45% and 6.45%. This surge is driven by expectations of bolstered domestic agricultural production to achieve self-sufficiency.

🫛 Soybean prices rebound after recent declines. Soybean futures have shown a recovery, closing up nearly 10¢ to $9.92¾ per bushel on April 8. This uptick is attributed to bull spreading and a weaker U.S. Dollar Index, enhancing the competitiveness of U.S. exports.

Bearish Trends:

🏦 U.S. agricultural giants are facing stock declines. Companies like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Bunge Global have seen their stock prices drop to multi-year lows, influenced by China's imposition of a 34% tariff on U.S. goods, including key agricultural products. This development threatens revenue streams heavily reliant on soybean processing and trading.

🗣️ Farmers are concerned over export markets. U.S. farmers are expressing apprehension about losing significant export markets, particularly in China, due to retaliatory tariffs. The potential shift of Chinese demand to alternative suppliers like Brazil could have long-term implications for U.S. agricultural exports.

📉 Commodity prices continue to trend downward amid recession fears. Global commodity markets, including agricultural products like corn, cocoa, and coffee, have experienced price drops. New tariffs disrupting trade flows and escalating trade tensions contribute to fears of reduced global demand and potential recession.

STARTUP SPOTLIGHT

3. Vivid Machines is Making Orchards Smarter

Toronto-based startup Vivid Machines is turning heads, and apple trees, with a game-changing approach to orchard management. Backed by funding from the Canadian Agri-Food Automation and Intelligence Network, this startup is tackling one of fruit farming’s most overlooked opportunities: precision pruning and tree vigor tracking.

Backstory: Founded in 2020 by Jenny Lemieux and Jonathan Binas

Key innovation: The Vivid XV platform, which uses advanced spectral imaging and AI to analyze every tree in an orchard, turning routine passes into actionable insights.

Funding: CAAIN is contributing a little over $800,000.

INCASE YOU MISSED IT

4. Quick Hits on Policy and Relevant News

🚗 Canada's retaliatory auto tariffs effective April 9, Canada will impose 25% tariffs on select U.S.-made vehicles in response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian automotive exports. This measure aims to pressure the U.S. to remove its tariffs affecting the Canadian auto sector. More.

💸 Ontario has a tariff support package on the horizon. Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced a C$11 billion relief package to assist workers and businesses impacted by U.S. tariffs. The plan includes deferred tax payments and employer rebates to preserve jobs in affected industries. More.

🗳️ Federal election campaign developments update. With the snap federal election set for April 28, recent polls indicate a tightening race between Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Poll tracker.

🏦 Bank of Canada survey is highlighting recession concerns. A recent survey reveals that 32% of Canadian firms anticipate a recession in the next year, doubling from previous quarters. This sentiment is largely attributed to global economic uncertainties, including U.S. tariff actions. More.

💼 Travel advisory for Canadians has been updated. Cautioning travelers about heightened border scrutiny and new registration requirements for long-term visitors. These changes reflect stricter U.S. immigration enforcement policies. More.

THE BIG PICTURE

5. The Rise of Private Ag-Tech Capital

Fueling Innovation for Canadian Producers

Canada's agriculture sector is seeing a surge in private capital flowing into ag-tech startups, opening the door to a new wave of tools and innovations for producers. This shift is driven by evolving technologies, consumer demand, and sustainability goals.

Investment Trends and Growth

Between 2014 and 2024, Canada’s agri-food tech sector attracted over CAD 4.1B in investments, with CAD 2.3B directed to food-tech. While public funding once dominated, private venture capital now accounts for about 40% of rounds. A big standout being plant-based proteins, growing at a 49.5% CAGR, led by startups like New School Foods and No Meat Factory.

Implications for Canadian Producers

• Tech Access: Private investment is fast-tracking innovation in precision ag, biotech, and sustainable practices.

• Diversification: Support for alternative proteins and food waste tech gives farmers more ways to diversify and grow revenue.

• Global Reach: A stronger ag-tech ecosystem boosts Canada’s competitiveness in global food and innovation markets.

Challenges and Considerations

Growth is strong, but there are hurdles. Later-stage funding in Canada lags behind U.S. and UK benchmarks, making it harder to scale. Labor shortages and supply chain issues also like to add pressure and because ag operates on longer cycles, venture capital must be patient (quick-return models don't always fit).